Currently, India sends about 20 percent of its total exports to the US, while imports from there account for only around 7 percent. America's share in the services sector is also around 15 percent.
There could be a surplus in trade with America, claims SBI in a new report
India-US Trade Deal: A report by the State Bank of India (SBI) claims that the recent trade deal between India and the United States could yield significant economic benefits for New Delhi. According to the report, India's trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion. This increase is primarily due to a potential surge in Indian exports.
According to news agency ANI, the SBI report states that after the recent significant tariff reductions, India's top 15 products could reach $97 billion annually in exports to the US. Total exports could even surpass $100 billion. The reduction in tariffs on Indian products will open up new opportunities for Indian exporters in the US market, potentially leading to significant export growth.
Trade surplus with the US
According to the report, India's trade surplus with the US is already showing signs of growth. It reached $40 billion in FY2025, while it was $26 billion during the April-December period of FY2026. If projected export growth occurs, the trade surplus could exceed $90 billion on an annual basis, representing approximately 1.1 percent of India's GDP.
Currently, India sends approximately 20 percent of its total exports to the US, while imports from there are only around 7 percent. America's share in the services sector is also around 15 percent. These figures clearly indicate that until now, American goods and services have had relatively limited access to the Indian market, while Indian products have a strong presence in the US market.
Big opportunity for Indian exporters
Regarding imports, the report also notes that India has committed to purchasing $500 billion worth of goods from the United States over the next five years. Consequently, it is estimated that US exports to India could reach approximately $50 billion annually, excluding the services sector. If further tariff reductions or exemptions are granted, US exports of agricultural and other products could reach $55 billion.
Overall, the SBI report indicates that this trade deal could prove to be significant for India in terms of export expansion, an increase in trade surplus, and a positive impact on GDP.
