Dengue fever outbreaks are a serious problem in India. Every year thousands of people fall prey to this viral disease. Scientists are now researching a new way to predict dengue outbreaks in advance and this method is quite interesting. According to a recently published study, unusual changes in the surface temperature of the tropical Indian Ocean can help predict the intensity and timing of dengue outbreaks around the world.
In the study, scientists have identified the 'Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW)' index, which essentially reflects the average of changes in surface temperature in the tropical Indian Ocean. Researchers found that changes in the IOBW index are associated with dengue outbreaks up to three months in advance in both the northern and southern hemispheres.
"This index (IOBW) can potentially provide advance information for forecasting dengue, which can help in preparing better response plans and reducing outbreaks," says study co-author Dr Rahul Bhattacharya (Beijing Normal University, China). However, more research is still needed in this area. Study lead author Dr Vincent Z. Gonzalez (Institut Pasteur, France) made it clear that although our model demonstrates the ability to capture the observed patterns, there should be no conceit about its predictive ability without rigorous validation of future data.
Nevertheless, this finding shows a promising new way to predict dengue outbreaks. Timely forecasts can give health officials time to launch mosquito control campaigns and alert people, thereby reducing the number of dengue cases. The study also found that changes in regional temperatures can affect the suitable environment for dengue, increasing the chances of mosquitoes thriving and spreading the virus.
To prevent dengue outbreaks, it is important that we take measures to prevent mosquito breeding, such as maintaining cleanliness around homes and not allowing stagnant water to accumulate. Also, we should install mesh doors and windows and wear full-sleeved clothes to protect ourselves from mosquitoes. This new research could prove to be an important step in the fight against dengue. In the future, by monitoring the Indian Ocean, we will be better prepared for dengue outbreaks
(PC: Freepik)
