The latest exit poll by Today’s Chanakya has stirred major political buzz across India, indicating dramatic shifts in key state elections. According to the projections, West Bengal could witness a historic political turnaround, while Assam may see a strong comeback for the ruling party. Tamil Nadu appears stable, whereas Kerala is headed for a nail-biting contest.

BJP Set for Breakthrough in West Bengal?

The exit poll suggests a major upset in West Bengal, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to secure a clear majority. The survey estimates around 192 seats for BJP, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Mamata Banerjee, may drop to nearly 100 seats.

If these projections hold true, it would mark the first time BJP forms a government in West Bengal, ending decades of dominance by regional and left-leaning parties.

The state has a total of 294 assembly seats, and BJP’s performance could reshape the political landscape significantly.

Tamil Nadu Likely to Stay with DMK

In Tamil Nadu, the exit poll predicts continuity rather than change. The DMK, led by M.K. Stalin, is expected to retain power comfortably.

• DMK alliance: Around 125 seats
• AIADMK alliance: Around 45 seats
• Vijay’s party (TVK): Around 63 seats

The entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay appears to have split opposition votes, weakening AIADMK’s chances of a comeback.

Assam: BJP Alliance Heading for Big Win

The projections indicate a strong performance for the BJP-led alliance in Assam.

• BJP alliance: 93–111 seats (average ~102)
• Congress alliance: 14–32 seats
• Others: Minimal presence

With the majority mark at 64 in the 126-member assembly, the BJP is likely to retain power comfortably, potentially bringing Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma back for another term.

Kerala Faces Tight Electoral Battle

Kerala is expected to witness one of the closest contests among the states.

• UDF (Congress-led): Around 69 seats
• LDF (Left alliance): Around 64 seats
• BJP: Around 7 seats

With the majority mark at 71 in the 140-seat assembly, the outcome could swing either way, making Kerala the most unpredictable battleground.

Election Timeline Overview

Voting across states took place between April 9 and April 29, 2026:

• Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry: Single-phase elections
• West Bengal: Two phases (April 23 and April 29)

Most exit polls were released after the final phase, but Today’s Chanakya numbers have drawn particular attention due to their bold projections.

What Makes This Exit Poll Significant?

The predictions point toward:

• A potential historic win for BJP in West Bengal
• Continued dominance in Assam
• Stability in Tamil Nadu
• A high-stakes battle in Kerala

However, it is important to remember that exit polls are only estimates and final results may differ.

Final Takeaway

The 2026 state elections could bring significant political changes across India. While the exit poll hints at major shifts, the actual results will determine whether these predictions translate into reality.

All eyes are now on the official counting day, which will decide the political future of these key states.