Ascendia conducted this survey, titled "Battle of Bihar," covering assembly seats in the Purnia, Magadh, Bhojpur, Bhagalpur, Saran, and Patna regions.

A survey has been released regarding the Bihar Assembly elections. The survey, conducted in six assembly constituencies, revealed which party has the strongest hold between the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA and the Grand Alliance.

Ascendia conducted this survey , titled " Battle of Bihar-2025, " covering Purnia , Magadh, Bhojpur , Bhagalpur , Saran, and Patna. In addition to the NDA and the All India Alliance, the survey also included political analyst Prashant Kishore's Jan Suraj Party. According to the survey , the situation for the NDA and the Grand Alliance will remain similar to that of 2020. However, the Jan Suraj Party may perform well in some areas. Let's explore what this survey reveals about Bihar's 169 assembly seats. 

Purnia

has a total of 24 assembly seats. Muslims constitute 46 percent of the population here, and Scheduled Castes constitute 14 percent. In the last assembly elections, i.e., 2020, the NDA won 12 out of 24 seats, the Grand Alliance seven, and other parties five. At that time, the NDA 's vote share was 36 percent, the Grand Alliance's 36 percent, and other parties' 28 percent . According to the survey, the NDA's position remains unchanged this time, but the Grand Alliance may see an increase as the influence of other parties may decline. The Jan Suraj Party's influence is also low.

The Magadh Assembly constituency has a total of 26 seats, with 10 percent Muslims and 31 percent Scheduled Castes. In 2020, the Grand Alliance won 20 of the 26 seats , while the NDA won six, leaving others with none. According to surveys , the NDA may gain an edge in the 2025 elections, and the Grand Alliance may lose seats. However, the Jan Suraj Party's influence is also low here. In terms of vote share, the NDA had 31 percent in 2020 , the Grand Alliance had 41 percent , and other parties had 27 percent .

Bhojpur

has a total of 22 assembly seats, of which 9 percent are Muslim and 22 percent are Scheduled Caste. In the last assembly elections, the NDA  won two seats with a 28 percent vote share, the Grand Alliance won 19 with 40 percent , and other parties won one seat with a 32 percent vote share. According to the survey , the NDA may gain an edge this time, while the Grand Alliance may lag behind, and Jan Suraj 's influence is also minimal here.

Bhagalpur:

Bhagalpur has a Muslim population of 45.5 percent and Scheduled Castes of 14 percent . There are a total of 12 seats, of which the NDA won nine in 2020, while the Grand Alliance won three. Other parties failed to win a single seat. The NDA 's vote share was 44 percent , the Grand Alliance 's 38 percent , and others' 18 percent . According to the survey , this time the NDA may lag behind, the Grand Alliance may advance, and the status of Jansuraj depends on the candidates.

Saran

has a total of 24 assembly seats, with 15 percent Muslims and 15 percent Scheduled Castes . In the 2020 elections, the NDA won  nine seats in Saran with a vote share of 36 percent . The Grand Alliance won 15 seats and a vote share of 39 percent . Other parties, meanwhile, failed to secure a single seat, with a vote share of 25 percent . According to the survey , the NDA and Grand Alliance 's position remains unchanged this time, but Jan Suraj has a strong presence here.

Patna

has 21 assembly seats. Muslim constitutes 7 percent of the population, and Scheduled Castes constitute 22 percent . In the 2020 elections, the NDA won 11 seats with a 39 percent vote share, while the Grand Alliance won 10 seats with a 38 percent vote share . Other parties failed to win a single seat, with a vote share of 23 percent . Regarding the 2025 assembly elections, the survey shows no change in the position of the NDA and the Grand Alliance , while Jan Suraj has a strong hold here.