Vote Vibe Survey has come out before Bihar Assembly Elections 2025. Prashant Kishor's party Jan Swaraj is estimated to get 10% vote share. This vote can change the equations of NDA and the INDIA alliance.
The latest Vote Vibe survey released before the Bihar assembly elections has created a stir in politics. The survey is based on three different scenarios, and in all three, Prashant Kishor's party Jan Swaraj is estimated to get around 10 percent votes. The only difference is which alliance these votes will be cut from and who will benefit from it
In the first scenario, out of 10 percent votes of Jan Swaraj, 5 percent of the votes are seen to be cut due to India alliance. In this situation, the vote share of the India alliance remains 34 percent. The vote share of NDA becomes 42 percent. In such a situation, the possibility of NDA government being formed under the leadership of Nitish Kumar seems the highest.
Second scenario: Votes getting cut from NDA
In the second scenario, Jan Swaraj snatches 5 percent votes from NDA. This reduces the vote share of NDA to 37 percent. Whereas the vote share of India alliance reaches 39 percent. In this situation, the tables turn completely and the India alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav is in a position to form the government.
Third scenario: Equal votes cut from both alliances.
In the third scenario, Jan Swaraj cuts equal votes from both NDA and India alliance i.e. 2.5-2.5 percent. The remaining 5 percent votes come from other parties. In this situation, the vote share of NDA is 39 percent and the vote share of India alliance is 36 percent. Here, NDA gets an edge, but the gap is only 3 percent.
Profile of supporters of Jan Swaraj
According to the survey, the supporters of Jan Swaraj are mostly young and people troubled by unemployment. About 20 percent of the youth between the ages of 18 and 24 are supporting this party. It is estimated that 15 percent support will come from upper castes, 13 percent from Muslim community, 9 percent from OBC, 6 percent from Scheduled Caste and 11 percent from tribal class. This makes it clear that Prashant Kishore's appeal is multi-layered and is influencing different sections of the society.
Potential benefit for INDIA alliance
The second scenario of the survey is considered to be most beneficial for the India alliance. Due to the impact of Jan Swaraj, the vote share of the India alliance can reach 39 percent. If there is an agreement on seat sharing and Congress gives full support to Tejashwi Yadav, then the possibility of the Mahagathbandhan forming the government can increase further.
Electoral equations and the role of the kingmaker
The survey results show that the NDA has an advantage in the first and third scenarios. Whereas the All India Alliance comes close to power in the second scenario. It has also become clear that Prashant Kishor's Jan Swaraj Party can play the role of a kingmaker in this election.
