Venezuela Oil Reserves: If Venezuela re-enters the global oil market and avenues for investment open up there, Indian refiners and oil companies could benefit significantly.
How the US attack on Venezuela will completely change the oil game
Venezuela Oil Crisis: The South American country of Venezuela is currently undergoing a profound crisis. The impact of the US attack on this country, which has the world's largest oil reserves, will not be limited to Washington; its effects could be felt globally in the coming days. While there are no direct benefits for India at this time, this development could also create opportunities for India in the long run.
If Venezuela re-enters the global oil market and opens up investment opportunities, Indian refiners and oil companies could benefit significantly. This expectation was reflected in the stock market on Monday, when Reliance Industries shares rose nearly 1 percent to a 52-week high of ₹1,611.80, boosting the company's market cap to nearly ₹22 lakh crore.
How will the oil game change?
Other companies in the oil and gas sector also saw strength. Hindustan Petroleum rose 1.85 percent to ₹508.45 intraday. ONGC rose 1.16 percent to ₹246.80, Indian Oil Corporation gained 1.03 percent to ₹168.79, and Oil India gained 0.47 percent to ₹432.45.
Experts are divided on this development. V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, says that the US attack on Venezuela in early 2026 signals major geopolitical changes. This could further destabilize global geopolitics. Protests in Iran could intensify, the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to drag on, and China could also take advantage of these circumstances to take aggressive steps against Taiwan. However, he believes that in the long run, the Venezuela crisis could provide relief to India from oil prices.
What will be the major impacts?
According to senior journalist Ruman Hashmi, the way US President Donald Trump is pressuring India to import oil from Russia and is now directly intervening in Venezuela to consolidate his hold on power there, is sure to have far-reaching consequences for the global oil trade. He said that Trump is also warning Colombia and Brazil and talking about imposing additional tariffs on India. Just as the government in Iraq came under US influence after the change of power, a similar scenario could be seen in Venezuela.
Hashmi also clarified that India's decision to import oil from Russia is not a political one, but an economic one. India plays a significant role in the global oil market, and linking it to funding the Ukraine war is wrong.
Overall, the US attack on Venezuela is signaling significant turmoil in the global oil market. The impact of these events could be clearly visible in the coming days on oil prices, geopolitical dynamics, and the strategies of Indian energy companies.
What impact on India?
From India's perspective, its relationship with Venezuela has largely relied on oil imports. Crude oil trade between the two countries declined sharply in 2021 and 2022 due to US sanctions, but as the situation changed, trade appeared to pick up again in 2023-24. During this period, India's petroleum imports from Venezuela increased to nearly $1 billion.
According to a report in The Financial Express, India briefly became the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude oil in December 2023. However, China currently remains the largest importer of Venezuelan crude oil. These figures clearly show that despite global sanctions and geopolitical tensions, energy cooperation between India and Venezuela is beginning to strengthen, which could play a significant role in India's energy security in the future.
