Light showers expected in several districts from July 16, while stronger monsoon activity may resume after July 20, says IMD

After several days of hot and humid weather caused by weak monsoon activity, Rajasthan is expected to witness a gradual change in weather conditions. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall activity is likely to increase in parts of the state from July 16, offering some relief from rising temperatures.

While widespread heavy rainfall is not expected immediately, the weather department has forecast light rain or drizzle in selected districts over the next few days. Most parts of the state, however, are likely to continue experiencing largely dry weather before monsoon conditions strengthen again later this month.

Monsoon Activity Expected to Improve Gradually

The southwest monsoon has remained relatively weak across Rajasthan in recent days, leading to higher daytime temperatures and uncomfortable humidity levels. Meteorologists now expect weather systems developing over northwestern India to gradually improve rainfall activity across the state.

According to the latest forecast:

• Light rain or drizzle may begin in isolated areas from July 16.
• Most districts are expected to experience predominantly dry weather over the next six to seven days.
• Parts of the Jaipur, Bharatpur and Bikaner divisions could receive scattered light showers during this period.

The rainfall is expected to be isolated rather than widespread, with no major heavy rainfall warning issued for the state at present.

Districts That May Receive Rain Today

The Jaipur Meteorological Centre has identified several districts where light rainfall or drizzle is likely during Thursday's forecast period.

The districts include:

• Udaipur division
• Jodhpur division
• Sri Ganganagar
• Hanumangarh
• Churu
• Sikar
• Jhunjhunu
• Alwar
• Bharatpur

Residents in these regions may experience brief spells of rain accompanied by cloudy skies. However, weather officials have not predicted widespread heavy rainfall for these areas at this stage.

Weather Systems Influencing Rajasthan

Several atmospheric systems are currently influencing weather patterns across northwestern India.

Meteorologists have reported the presence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over north Gujarat and adjoining southwest Rajasthan, extending from approximately 3.1 km to 5.8 km above mean sea level. This system is expected to contribute to localized rainfall over parts of Rajasthan.

In addition, a fresh western disturbance is likely to become active over northwest India from July 19, which may further support weather changes across the region.

Weather experts also expect an increase in moisture inflow from the Bay of Bengal after July 20, creating favourable conditions for the monsoon to regain strength across Rajasthan.

Active Monsoon Trough Supporting Rainfall Elsewhere

The IMD said the active monsoon trough currently extends from Jammu through Dehradun, Shahjahanpur, Basti, Patna and Bankura before reaching the Bay of Bengal.

A low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha-West Bengal coast is currently triggering widespread rainfall across eastern and central India.

At present, the direct impact of these systems on Rajasthan remains limited. However, meteorologists indicate that if the low-pressure system shifts further westward, rainfall activity across the state could increase significantly.

Stronger Monsoon Likely After July 20

Weather experts believe Rajasthan could witness a noticeable improvement in monsoon activity after July 20.

As moisture levels increase and favourable weather systems become more active, rainfall is expected to become more widespread across several districts. This could help reduce temperatures, improve humidity conditions and provide much-needed relief after the recent dry spell.

The timing and intensity of rainfall will depend on how the developing weather systems evolve over the coming days.

Advisory for Residents

Although no major heavy rainfall warning has been issued at present, residents are advised to stay updated with the latest forecasts issued by the IMD and local authorities.

People living in districts where light rain is expected should remain cautious while travelling during brief showers. Farmers and those involved in agricultural activities may also benefit from monitoring weather updates to plan irrigation and field operations accordingly.

Outlook

The latest IMD forecast suggests that Rajasthan is entering a transition phase after a temporary slowdown in monsoon activity. While most areas may continue to experience dry weather in the short term, isolated rainfall is expected from July 16, with the possibility of a broader monsoon revival after July 20 if current weather systems strengthen as anticipated.

Weather conditions remain dynamic, and updated forecasts over the next few days will provide a clearer picture of rainfall distribution across the state.