Iran vs. America: Neither Trump nor Khamenei are sure when to start or stop a war. The US has sent warships toward Iran, but Trump has not confirmed the possibility of war. What is going to happen?

Will there be a war between Iran and America?

Given the current situation between Iran and the United States, everyone believes that the US and Iran could attack each other at any time. On the surface, this appears to be the case, but some facts suggest that war is unlikely.

Fact No. 1: Iran did not execute Irfan Soltani

Trump threatened to attack Iran after Iran announced it was planning to publicly execute protester Irfan Soltani. He warned that if the execution took place, there would be serious consequences. The execution was originally scheduled for January 14th, but it was postponed. Trump then stated that both executions and murders are being stopped in Iran. This suggests Trump has changed his mind.

Fact No. 2: Iran reopened its airspace

Following Trump's threat, Iran closed its airspace. This meant that no plane could enter Iranian airspace, and any that did would be considered an attack. However, Iran has now reopened its airspace. Planes are now flying on schedule to various Iranian cities.

Fact No. 3: Crude oil prices fell

The possibility of a war being averted is what has prompted the market to decline oil prices, as a war would have meant a rise in oil prices. However, on January 15th, the price of crude oil fell by $2 per barrel in the international market. This has increased confidence that a war has been averted.

Fact No. 4: The promised help never arrived

Another strong piece of evidence regarding the averting of this war is that when a journalist in the Oval Office asked Trump whether the US military operation had been halted, Trump said he was still looking into it. Furthermore, Trump himself recently incited Iranian protesters, telling them to continue protesting and occupying government buildings, and that help would arrive soon. It has been three or four days since this statement was made, but the protesters have not received any assistance that could have provoked Iran and sparked talks of war.

However, there are some signs pointing to war. The US Navy's fleet is rapidly advancing towards Iran from the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Khamenei, on the other hand, has the will to do anything. But given the current situation, war seems inevitable.